据阿拉伯贸易网2023年2月16日利雅得报道，根据国际能源论坛(IEF)等发布的一份最新报告，今年全球上游石油和天然气领域的年度投资需要增长28%，达到6400亿美元，以确保全球供应充足。
报告称，2022年全球上游石油和天然气领域的资本支出比2021年增长39%，至4990亿美元，为2014年以来的最高水平，但由于通胀侵蚀了支出，钻井行业的资本支出仍低于疫情前的水平。
报告补充说，2022年全球在用钻机数量增加了22%，但仍比2019年低10%。
IEF秘书长约瑟夫·麦克莫尼格尔表示：“在我们加大对可再生能源的投资并追求能源转型的同时，我们也需要增加对石油和天然气的投资，以支持全球经济，保护每个人的生活质量。”
麦克莫尼格尔指出，2022年的复苏标志着两年来的变化，当时由于疫情导致全球能源市场紧缩、价格飙升和天然气短缺，资本支出大幅下降。
S&P Global副董事长丹尼尔·尤金表示：“随着可再生能源和低碳技术的扩大，全球经济继续需要充足且价格合理的碳氢化合物供应。”
“未来的能源必须是安全的、负担得起的和可持续的。充分的投资，避免短缺和价格飙升，对未来能源安全至关重要。”
根据该报告，从现在到2030年，即使石油和天然气需求增长放缓，也需要累计4.9万亿美元投资来满足市场需求。
“正如我们去年所看到的，能源价格高企和波动对世界各地的家庭产生了灾难性的影响，最贫穷的人受到的打击最严重。石油和天然气投资不足威胁着能源安全，并通过增加对碳密集型选项的依赖而阻碍气候目标的进展。”麦克莫尼格尔评论道。
麦克莫尼格尔指出，如果消费国希望支撑市场，它们需要就未来需求发出明确信号，建立并维持充足的库存，支持长期承购合同，并防止出台禁止性政策。
与此同时，报告指出，油气生产商可以通过促进投资来支持市场。
运营商需要一定程度的保证和财政确定性来投资资本密集型、长周期的项目。随着风险的演变，运营商在投入资本方面将越来越受到限制，或者需要更高的回报。
报告指出，未来的供应必须明确一个可接受的目标率，该目标率要考虑到政策的不确定性、石油和天然气价格的变化，以及越来越多的碳价格假设。
此外，政府应该根据现实的能源需求前景制定政策，并确保在过渡期间提供充足和负担得起的能源供应。
李峻 编译自 阿拉伯贸易网
原文如下：
$640bn investment needed in upstream oil, gas sector by 2030: Report
Annual upstream oil and gas investment needs to rise by 28% to reach $640 billion by 2030 to ensure adequate global supplies, according to a new report published by the International Energy Forum (IEF) and S&P Global Commodity Insights, the leading independent provider of information, analysis and benchmark prices for the commodities and energy markets.
Capital expenditure in 2022 rose by 39% from the previous year to $499 billion, the highest level since 2014, but drilling remained below pre-pandemic levels as inflation ate away at the spending, stated the report.
The number of drilling rigs rose by 22% in 2022, but this was still 10% below 2019 levels, it added.
Joseph McMonigle, Secretary General of the IEF, said: "While we ramp up investment in renewables and pursue the energy transition, we also need to lift investment in oil and gas to support the global economy, and protect the quality of life for everyone."
The recovery in 2022 marked a change from the previous two years, when capital expenditure slumped with the Covid-19 pandemic contributing to a tightening of global energy markets, price spikes and shortages of natural gas, noted McMonigle.
"The global economy continues to need adequate and reasonably priced hydrocarbon supply alongside the scaling up of renewables and low-carbon technologies," said Daniel Yergin, Vice Chairman of S&P Global.
"The energy future must be secure and affordable, as well as sustainable. Adequate investment that avoids shortages and prices spikes, and the economic hardship and social turbulence that they bring, is essential to that future," he added.
According to the report, cumulative $4.9 trillion will be needed from now until 2030 to meet market needs, even if the growth in oil and gas demand slows down.
"As we saw last year, high energy prices and volatility have disastrous effects on households all over the world, hitting the poorest people the hardest. Underinvestment in oil and gas threatens energy security and stalls progress on climate goals by increasing reliance on more carbon-intensive options," remarked McMonigle.
If consumer countries wish to support markets they would need to send clear signals about future demand, build and maintain sufficient inventories, support long-term offtake contracts, and prevent prohibitive policies, he noted.
Meanwhile, the report stated that producers can support markets by promoting investment.
Operators need a certain level of assurance and fiscal certainty to invest in capital-intensive, long-cycle projects. They will be increasingly constrained in committing capital, or will require higher returns to do so, as risks evolve.
Future supply must clear an acceptable hurdle rate that accounts for policy uncertainty, variable oil and gas prices, and, increasingly, carbon price assum
ptions, it stated.
Additionally, governments should base policies on realistic energy demand outlooks and to ensure adequate and affordable energy supplies during the transition, said the report.
